Raptors vs Minnesota January 9 2012: Bargnani, Johnson Bail Out Backcourt

The game stats sheet from last night's game can be downloaded in .pdf format here, free-of-charge.

Another worrying sign for the Raptors showed through in an unfortunate win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night; namely, DeMar DeRozan failed to produce much of anything on the offensive end for the third game in a row. Somehow, sadly, Amir Johnson and Andrea Bargnani in particular ended up playing quite well and powered the Raptors to a lottery-chance-reducing victory.

In pleasant news for Raptors' fans - if you're looking for that kind of thing - the Raptors managed what for them is a near non-occurrence: a complete sweep of the Four Factors. Now, they still have a lot of issues; they're still not a good-shooting team, they still foul way too much and their victory on the offensive boards owed itself pretty much exclusively to Amir Johnson's complete dominance in that regard. And, frankly, they still don't get to the line nearly enough. That said, for one night, it was sufficient.

More thoughts? Gladly.

1. He can't be this bad. I'm sorry, DeMar DeRozan is not nearly as bad as he's played offensively the past three games. He's been in single-digits in Points Produced every game with hideously inefficient rates. He's not getting to the line, he's not shooting well and he's not producing on the offensive glass (small surprise, given Casey's preference to send bodies back in transition defense). While he simply does need to improve, the offense as is simply does not put him in enough favourable situations; defenses are loading up on him the instant he touches the ball and he's simply not quick enough to create reliable dribble penetration. Now, part of being a "star" is that you have to succeed against adverse circumstances every now and again; we hope he can get there. But he's been far better previously in his career with an even greater set of limitations. Hopefully he's carrying through on his penchant to start seasons miserably and improve as the year goes on.
2. He can't be this good. Andrea Bargnani played like an honest-to-goodness star last night - surprisingly, on both ends of the floor. He was actually fairly effective in trying to hold down the paint; he provided decent help on a couple of drives and while that is still not an automatic response for him, he's at least better. He was efficient and highly productive offensively - mostly because he's getting to the line a lot, and his turnovers are starting to be kept down a little bit, too. Now, he has his issues; he's still not good defensively, his rebounding is all kinds of pathetic and if there's a dictionary entry for "unimpressive passer", his picture has to be right next to it. Frankly, I also think he's going to have a lot of sustainability issues - especially if he is forced to play against something that resembles multiple coverage at any point. However, except on the boards, last night he played like an actual, legitimate star in this league. And that's more than I thought I could be saying for him this year.
3. Thoughts on Amir. I think Amir Johnson was rather unambiguously the Raptors' best player last year. This year, he's had major issues, especially with turnovers and shooting in the painted area. I'm guessing this has to do with his thumb injury, but last night he showed us a lot more of Amir of last year - just after I finished worrying about his play. Turns out, that he can turn things around pretty quickly; his ORat jumped by over 10 points / 100 possessions last game. Now, he has a long way to go; his turnovers have to be cut in about half and he has to do a far better job shooting the basketball around the basket, and his defensive rebounding has to improve. However, despite all the injuries and Jose Calderon's unwillingness to attack ball screens, he's still managed to considerably expand his offensive share and his defense has probably never been better (and he's always been pretty good). One can only salivate at the thought of how good he could be at full health and with a better point guard and better scoring support on the wings.

The next game is tonight against Washington.

News Flash - we will be adding an entirely new feature to our game sheets starting with tomorrow's. I'm rather excited by it, but I will give out no hints whatsoever.

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Rushin' to Play Catch-Up - And, Some Russian "Ketchup"

Добро пожаловать в наш веб-сайт! И, с новым годом всем нашим читающим!

I do apologize for having been absent the past while; as my Twitter updates have suggested, I've been rather ill and basic walking has drained me of energy. Doing the game stats and getting them uploaded itself has been a taxing endeavour, so the game summaries of late have not really been in the cards.

Today, it's time for me to get caught up for the past three games. But it's an opportunity to have a little fun playing catch-up; I figured I'd include an introduction to Russian grilling with a very typically Russian technique (шашлыки - shashlyki, a form of skewer or kebab) with a marinade with a very typically Russian flavour profile (lots of onion and dill) and a Russian condiment. Although I've been mocked at RealGM for using "BorisDK1" as a username (who uses their real name as an internet handle anyway?), Boris was the name I was given in my first Russian class by my professor; it's as natural to me as "Blake" is. So I get the opportunity to show some appreciation for the culture I've studied more than my own, and get some basketball and some grilling done in one post. Everything's coming up Milhouse Boris, today!

So, onto some thoughts of the past three games.
The game stat sheet for Jan 4 against Cleveland may be downloaded here.

The game stat sheet for Jan 6 against New Jersey may be downloaded here.

The game stat sheet for Jan 7 against Philadelphia may be downloaded here.

1. The Curse of A Slow Pace. The Raptors have quite deliberately killed their pace of play this year. While there is only a weak correlation between pace and offensive and defensive efficiency historically in the NBA (and it might be more incidental than causal, as young teams tend to play at a fast pace and also be quite bad), in the Raptors' case, slowing the pace down has done considerable damage to their offense this year to date. The Raptors currently stand as the 24th ranked offense in the league. Part of that is due to the increased scrutiny that Amir Johnson and DeMar DeRozan are facing from defenses; part of the reason for that scrutiny is because forcing these players to play against set defenses - like pretty much every player - makes things considerably more difficult. Eric Koreen does a decent job pointing out the problem, although he's missing that the defense is still very, very poor (21st ranked as of today, and falling) and that having a transition attack is far more broad than merely getting primary breaks off of turnovers and long rebounds.
2. The Curse of Calderon. Jose Calderon has been shooting the lights out of almost every building he's set foot in this year; he's been unreal. This is the first hint he's had of how he played for those six unmatched weeks in 2008 ever since he signed his contract. His defense has been much better, as well. The downside? Well, his defense is currently falling off the face of the earth, back to where it has traditionally been. He's not getting into the paint as much as he was in the first few games, and thus the defense is "loading up" on Amir Johnson and DeMar DeRozan in particular. Now, those two have to be better offensively (Amir's ORat currently sits at 96, which is almost 30 points / 100 possessions worse than last year); however, they also need help from their point guard. Despite his good shooting (which is almost all uncontested or lightly-contested) he's been absolutely useless in ball screen action; defenses are clogging the paint against the hard roll of Johnson and Ed Davis, and daring Calderon to shoot because he cannot drive the ball into the paint. He's making his shots, but he's not shooting enough to really make this team good or to force the defense to lighten up on his screeners. This is an old story with Calderon, unfortunately; it's only been less evident because of his shooting this year. But I do expect his shooting to come back to earth, and as it does so, any advantage which he would otherwise exhibit on the court is pretty much gone.
3. Still Care to Grade the Defense, Coach? I know the defense has improved so far from last year, but keep in mind that even last year the Raptors' sat for a while at 19th ranked defensively; mostly it started to tumble after the trade of Jarrett Jack. Right now they sit at 21st. Now, when they can get their opponents to shoot the ball, they do just fine; they're ranked 6th in opponents' eFG% and 7th in defensive rebounding percentage. So where are they going wrong? Well, they don't force opponents to turn the ball over (ranked 30th in opponents TO%) and they hack and foul their way throughout games (ranked 29th in opponents' FT/FGA). It's unlikely that they'll ever force a lot of turnovers with the talent they have now, but they're going to have to do far better at keeping people off of the free throw line. If they can't do that, and opponents either start shooting or rebounding the ball offensively better against the Raptors, they're easily in line for another bottom-5 finish in DRat. That's frankly quite easy to imagine happening.
4. The Curse of Bargnani. I'll say it right now just so people who like making controversy might actually read everything I'll say: Bargnani is playing the best basketball of his career right now, and is actually a win-producing player, which he never has been before. Yes, a lot of this owes to defensive strategy which is allowing him to play one-on-one to his heart's content. Even this doesn't mean a whole lot, as he's never been this effective at taking advantage of that kind of defense before; the boy has definitely improved offensively, by a not-inconsiderable margin. He's been very good; let's give the man credit.
   
   However - and there is a BIG "however", here - the team's defense still stinks, ranked 21st in the league and trending worse - way worse. (Don't use opponent FG% to evaluate defense, kids.) Is that attributable to Bargnani? At least at some level, yes; he's only producing 6.4 stops / 36 pace-adjusted minutes (compare to Amir Johnson's 8.6, for example). You do need your post players to be major stop-producers. You can get away with it if a backcourt player has a low amount of stops, so long as they're efficient with their individual defense, but post defenders have to go out on the floor and produce stops for you; they play at too crucial a position to not do that. Further, Bargnani hasn't been particularly efficient, either, with a stop% of only .503 (which is well below league average). Now, can that be overcome with a better frontcourt player? Given how well Amir Johnson has played defensively, it's tough to imagine. We should hold off trying to answer this for now, since there is a lot of basketball yet to be played this year, but we should be definitely asking ourselves the question, "Can a team on which Andrea Bargnani starts and plays considerable minutes be a good defensive team?" Let's keep that at the forefront of our minds for the rest of the season.

Russian Pork Shashlyki with Homemade Russian "Ketchup"
Шашлыки из Свинины с Домашним Томатным Соусом

Now, we've played catch-up (very briefly), and now the promised homemade Russian "ketchup". This is a recipe from Steven Raichlen in Planet Barbecue.

Shashlyki are skewers made on the world's most popular type of grill: the mangal. The shapes vary, but basically it's a grateless, open trough containing coals. The sides are usually notched to hold flat skewers in place; the griller then is responsible for rotating the skewers as he or she sees fit. Most people here in North America probably do not have a mangal grill; fortunately, there are alternatives. I know Home Depot has a semi-mangal set that you can place on your grill which takes the skewers off of the grate so you can kind of recreate that grateless idea; Steven Raichlen also has a set of flat metal skewers, selling at about $9 from amazon.ca. You can go ahead and put the skewers on the grate, of course, but you should also think of ways to creatively go grateless. For instance, just using skewers, you can place two bricks on top of the grate and suspend the skewers on top of those.

Russians used to have a strong preference for making their own condiments; unfortunately, in much the same way that France of all places is suffering an obesity pandemic due to the influence of American-style fast food, Russians are now apparently preferring to buy premade condiments. We do things throwback, here, though - and we do them fresh. So this is a traditional Russian homemade "ketchup" that is going to cut through the very pungent marinade for the шашлыки. Now, I've modified the marinade to make it more typically Russian than Mr. Raichlen's version (which I thought was too stereotypical to be authentic) and to cut the pungency down a couple of notches.

Ingredients

Marinade

Pork shoulder (1 - 1.5 lbs) (Russians typically use pork neck for this meat, if you want to be authentic)
1 white onion
2 cloves garlic
fresh carrots
1 c сметана ("smetana" - can find in Eastern European markets, but can substitute sour cream)
1 tbsp finely chopped fresh dill
1 tbsp paprika
kosher or sea salt, to taste
freshly ground or cracked black peppercorns, to taste

"Ketchup"

3/4 c canned tomato paste
2 tbsp fresh lemon juice
1 clove garlic, minced (or, better, microplaned)
2 tbsp finely chopped fresh cilantro
1 tsp ground coriander
kosher or sea salt, to taste
freshly ground black pepper, to taste

Directions

1. Trim the pork shoulder of skin and fat cap. Cut into 1.5" x 1.5" 1.5" cubes.
2. Grate onion into a large bowl.
3. Microplane garlic into bowl.
4. Cut carrots brunoise (that is, 1/8" x 1/8" x 1/8" dice), about 1 1/2 tbsp worth. Add to bowl.
5. Add chopped dill, smetana (or sour cream), paprika, salt and pepper to bowl. Mix all ingredients together, then add pork cubes and toss until well-coated. Marinade for at least 2 hours, but no more than four. Raichlen says Russians can never have too much onion, but there's enough pungency after two hours to blow most people's heads clean off.
6. To make the ketchup, whisk all ingredients together in a non-reactive bowl. Add water as necessary to thin to a pour-able consistency.
7. Thread pork shoulder cubes onto skewers for grilling. NOTE: it is a common North American mistake to put numerous types of foods on the same skewer. Do not do this; different foods cook at different rates. You'll end up with burnt vegetables and underdone meat.
8. Prepare grill for direct grilling, grateless if possible (consider using bricks as crypto-jack stands for skewers.). Heat at high temperature.
9. Grill skewers until well-browned on all sides; should be 2-3 minutes per side.
10. Serve with the "ketchup".

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Raptors @ Knicks Jan 2 2012: Tank Breaks Down

The game stats sheet can be downloaded free-of-charge in .pdf format here.
The updated season-to-date spreadsheet (.xls format) can be downloaded here. Scroll to the bottom to see the summed fields.

The Raptors tried their damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of sure victory against New York's ill-considered team without arguably their best player, but New York just chose to vomit victory all over the Raptors. This tragic turn of events is a big hit to the trusty tank. We can only hope the Raptors can get it rolling again next game so it can sputter its way on to the end of its glorious course - to the podium of the 2012 NBA lottery.

Now, I'll admit: I am not a Carmelo Anthony fan. At least, I'm not to the extent that I don't think he's the "star" that he's presented as being. He's basically Bargnani with a little more rebounding and a tad more offensive efficiency - but not that much. I will admit that I think he has potential of being a top-shelf criminal some day, despite his low-key commitment to that endeavour the past three years or so.

I think New York made a mistake in doing an extend-and-trade with him, because it has glass-ceilinged them from getting one of the premier free agents next year. Had they been patient and managed their cap better, perhaps they'd have been in play for Dwight Howard and one of the top-notch point guards, and had Gallinari and/or Chandler to protect them offensively. Even if that point guard had been an old, wizened Steve Nash, that sounds like a hell of a pairing with Amar'e and Howard with something that resembled bench support.

Now, I like Tyson Chandler - I like him a lot - and perhaps they still do score Nash with a year or so life left in him with the MLE. But is an Amar'e-Chandler-Anthony-Nash team even a team that can win a championship? They'd be life-and-death to get support on the wings and for backup bigs. Their defense would be awfully suspect, as well. I don't think that's a team that, assuming everything works out perfectly, could guarantee that it could get out of the second round of the playoffs. I think the Knicks got too jumpy last year and they should have just let Carmelo expire and go get him with cap space, which would have relieved their cap of the burden of the higher salary he got as part of the sign-and-trade. They were on the path to doing something special, and I think their jumpiness and overrating of Carmelo Anthony cost them that chance.

Oh, well. We're in the same division, so I'm glad it went down that way.

Now onto the game.

1. Actual defense. Okay, defending the Knicks without Stoudemire is a little bit like defending the Poor Sisters of the Perpetually Weak. But still, they managed to hold them to 90.8 points / 100 possessions, which is fantastic - even this year, with generally depressed offenses league-wide. For all the ballyhoo the Raptors' announcers make about supposedly improved defense, they came into this game as the 4th worst defense in the league. (The problem there being the focus on points allowed per game, instead of per possession; the Raptors defensively are as bad as they've ever been, they're just playing at a slower pace.) Having an actual effective outing on that side of the floor was actually needed.
2. Better, DeMar. Okay, scoring against the Knicks is definitely like scoring against the Poor Sisters of the Perpetually Weak; DeMar has had big games against these guys before. But he got to the line a fair bit tonight, defended fairly well, made his threes and generally played well. He didn't play spectacularly well, but he played okay. He certainly played better than his previous two outings, so he does need to follow this game up with some more sustained success. I understand that the ball-dominance of the offense of both Calderon and Bargnani does not suit him well, but that cannot be allowed to limit him; he has to learn to not only demand the ball, but command his teammates' respect so that the ball will come to him naturally.
3. Hamstrung in the Half Court. I'm sure Coach Casey believes that his team has a defensive advantage when they're not playing a transition game offensively; perhaps he believes that teams who run in an organized fashion (we'll discussion transition organization from a technical standpoint at some point in the future) are necessarily going to be poor defensive transition teams. There is a correlation, but not a necessary one and not necessarily a causal one. Given that the Raptors are still a horrible defensive team playing at the slower pace - which is partially being affected by sending only one player to the offensive boards - are they really overall any better off taking the transition game out of their arsenal? I don't think so. Now, perhaps he wants to force DeRozan, Amir and Davis to show what they can do against prepared, set defenses and not to reap the benefits of playing in the open court; that makes sense, I suppose. But the strategy itself is probably not going to be a winning one for the Raptors. However, it did save their bacon tonight against the Knicks because as bad as the Raptors are at scoring in the halfcourt, the Knicks sans Stoudemire seem to be even worse.

The next game is on Wednesday. Talk then!

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Raptors @ Orlando, Jan 1, 2012: Amir and Ed Go Missing

The game stats may be downloaded here in .pdf format, free of charge. The complete season-to-date spreadsheet is available here.

Apparently, somebody has kidnapped Ed Davis and Amir Johnson and replaced them with wildly less-productive body doubles for the previous two games.

Normally, Johnson and Davis can be counted on for doing yeoman-like work on the boards, playing highly effective defense and giving great efficiency with their offense. The past two games, however, their offensive share has plummeted through the floor and their productivity has right along with it as a result. Oh, they've been efficient enough; and their defense has been admittedly OK. But their rebounding and offensive production has bottomed out for both of them, on both ends of the floor.

Davis and Johnson might not be guys who will go out and single-handedly win games for you most of the time, but their efficiency on their normal usage will take an otherwise mediocre offensive game and turn it into a very good one, and their defense (especially Amir's) can also impact the game quite positively. The Raptors are going to need to get more out of these players; obviously, it's on them but at the same time the Raptors are wholeheartedly retreating from offensive rebounding. We'll see if that trend continues, but honestly if things continue on the way they're going - that the Raptors can't stop anybody nor rebound the ball offensively - then they should release Ed and Amir on the offensive glass, since they are two of the best offensive rebounders in the game today.

Anyway, that is what stood out at me most from this game. Beyond that I have three lesser thoughts, a good/bad situation for both.

1. Jose Calderon. Calderon was ridiculously efficient offensively in this game, posting an ORat of over 170, which is insane. Granted, he only used about 19% of the team's offense, but that's a triumph of efficiency. The problem is, he defended like we've grown accustomed to seeing how Jose Calderon defends, with his stop% of .375. They need him to be better on that end of the floor, but that's been the case for seven years already and hasn't deterred the Raptors from eating into his playing time yet.
2. DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan had a miserable shooting game from the floor and posted zero assists (although he freely swung the ball a lot). He is going to need to establish himself as a reliable, efficient scorer for the long-run and he hasn't quite accomplished that yet (although he's not that far off). On the plus side, his rebounding was very good and his defense generally was okay. Most importantly, he lived at the free throw line which is what the Raptors need him to do more than anything else. So we can take some positives away from this game despite the poor floor shooting.
3. Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani had a rather good offensive game; his efficiency was decent, but not overwhelming. There was a "regression to the mean" effect after his opening 8/12 shooting, of course; that's to be expected. (We'll discuss the "hot hand" idea later and why we don't believe it actually exists at some point later.) The one thing that was decidedly less pleasant was the fact that he defended like absolute garbage. And, for the third time in four games, he did not grab an offensive rebound. His total offensive rebounding percentage now stands at .010. That's right: a 7 foot tall post player is grabbing exactly one percent of all the offensive rebounds available to him. To borrow a quote from Phil Jackson about Stacey King when he had only two rebounds in one game, "A two year-old running around the court would get hit in the head with more than that." This is going to be a constant concern for the Raptors, and they should start asking themselves whether they can win in the long-run with that condition.

The Knicks game is on in about 45 minutes. Enjoy!

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Raptors @ Dallas Dec 30 2011: Stop the Presses: Bargnani and Calderon play well.

The game stats are available for download in .pdf format here. The download is completely free, as per usual. As well, the season-to-date stats are all available on this spreadsheet. I will update that following each game.

I'm not making a controversial statement when I say that Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon have let this team down a lot the past several years. Between their poor defensive play and Bargnani's inefficiency on the offensive end, the Raptors have been put behind the proverbial 8-ball by those two too often to remember. Tonight, however, was a role reversal: those two played quite well, and the support from the others just wasn't there. Well, up until the fourth quarter at least: Bargnani fell back to his normal levels of (in)efficiency in the final quarter. But at least he managed to defend Dirk Nowitzki quite well when his shot wasn't falling, which is something unheard-of for him. The fact that Jose Calderon has had three decent defensive games in a row is equally unheard-of.

Tonight, the Raptors got subpar performances from Amir Johnson, Ed Davis and DeMar DeRozan; usually among their more productive players, they just didn't get it done tonight. DeMar had a great game defensively, he did a fantastic job contesting shots on good close-outs to the perimeter but he had his first inefficient game of the season. I do expect him to bounce back. In the meantime, here are my thoughts of tonight's game.

James Johnson: R-Rated

There's nothing <i>per se</i> offensive about James Johnson; he seems to work hard and compete hard. But he is so terrible offensively that any time he actually touches the ball a CENSORED bar should flash across the screen over him. He's a turnover and a missed shot looking for a place to happen. His ORat so far is a breathtakingly poor 72.0. Assuming Kleiza plays like the Kleiza back from his Denver days when he returns, it won't be hard to imagine Johnson getting a considerable cut to his playing time.

No Post Game

The Raptors have had major issues offensively so far this season. A big reason for this is that they simply have not established a post-up presence. DeRozan and Amir are clearly their best post-up players, but the Raptors have so far failed to use them a whole lot. They don't need to over-force this, nor do they need necessarily to actually put the ball into the post, but far too often they are pulling players like Amir and Ed Davis away from the paint. Since the only offensive rebounds Andrea Bargnani ever gets - few as they are - are purely accidental, they need to be far more conscious of the need to take advantage of the fact that Amir and Ed Davis are among the best offensive rebounders in the game. Sacrificing offensive rebounding <i>in toto</i> is not going to help them win.

The Free Throw Gap

Although it was nice of Rick Carlisle to opine that the Raptors should be in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference, that is a distant possibility at best as the Raptors continue to hack and foul their way throughout games and barely get to the line themselves. Perhaps the latter issue is due to the offense only being partially installed thus far; they are only attempting .139 FT/FGA thus far. That is ridiculously low. DeMar DeRozan who has at times managed to live at the free throw line is only attempting .195 FTA/FGA thus far. Part of that is just a recurring problem with Jose Calderon as a point guard; he neither gets to the line himself, nor does he get his teammates there. On the other side, the Raptors' opponents are attempting .282 FT/FGA. The odds of any team winning with such a huge disparity in attempts from the line are very, very slim. The Raptors are going to have to figure out ways of keeping people off of the free throw line. They are giving up too many offensive rebounds, and that will invariably lead to free throw attempts but they also are going to need to be much quicker rotating so they won't have to foul to stop so many layups.

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Feeling Defensive?

Defense might not win fantasy championships all by itself, but blocks and steals are rare counting stats, and finding a player off the wire who's going to be a major contributor in either category (or both!) can be a real boon to a defensively challenged fantasy squad. Just a caveat to begin – we're looking at wicked small sample sizes here, so it's not a matter of results written in stone, but we'll try to look at career stats to back up some of the trends we see.

Raptors forward James Johnson is averaging a whopping 4 Stl and 2.5 Blk a game through their first two tilts. Obviously he won't continue to produce at quite those dizzying heights, but his career averages do sit at 1.5 Stl and 2 Blk per36, so there's solid reasons to think he'll keep on blockin' and teefin' the ball at a high level. Johnson also won't be seriously challenged for minutes at SF for the Raps until Linas Kleiza returns from injury (no time soon) so Johnson's PT is pretty much in the bag, at least for now. To go along with those huge defensive numbers Johnson is also a solid source of boards and assists, so his overall line is pretty robust. Just don't expect him to score you a lot of points.

Spencer Hawes has played like a mad man through Philly's first two games, averaging 10 and 12 with 6 dimes, 2.5 Stl and 1.5 Blk. No, he won't play like that all season, but yes he should be a solid defensive contributor in both cats while he plays. I've already talked a lot about Hawes, so I'll leave off the gritty details here and just tell you to go pick him up and ride him while he's hot.

Brandon Rush plays for the Warriors, so he's already got a big gold star for fantasy purposes (even playing for Mark Jackson). Rush has been Jackson's gunslinger off the bench so far this year, and Rush has responded well, averaging 12 and 4 with 1.3 Stl and 2 Blk a contest. Those blocks will sag off, but Rush's career numbers tell us that he could easily add a steal and a little more than a block per game if his minutes stay where they are.

Chris Singleton has played 24mpg for a raw Wizards squad, and he's averaging 2 Stl through those games. This is a trend that could easily continue. Singleton was a defensive stopper in college and the Wiz could really use a little of that to stiffen the bucket of spit they're currently rolling out on a nightly basis. Singleton also blocked some shots in college (1.5 a game) so there's some room for him to help you there too if you're patient with him. He's more of a deep league add, or a roto specialist, at this point, but he's worth an add if that's what you need.

Gerald Henderson yo. Starting SG for the Bobcats, he's poised for a big year (and he's also probably already gone in most competitive leagues, but whatevs). Henderson is dropping 1.5 Stl and a block a game so far. The lad has serious chops, and he'll be solid in both cats all year, and his current 1.5/1 pace is pretty close to what I'd expect from him anyway (1.4 and .8 might be more realistic, but I thrive on optimism).

Rudy Fernandez was traded to Denver to shore up their wing depth, and with JR Smith and Wilson Chandler still enjoying a Chinese holiday, Rudy should play a lot of minutes. His career numbers suggest that he's a 1.5 Stl a game guy, but there's room for a little more there if Denver keeps playing 100+ possessions a game. Fernandez is also a solid source of threes and assists, so he's not a one dimensional player. Just lock up your FG% before you let him into the house.

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Raptors vs Indiana Dec 28 2011: It's A Lot Easier Against Rookies

The game stat sheet can be downloaded here free of charge in .pdf format.

Well, the tank finally got out of the gate in tonight's game as the Raptors dropped their first game of the season. And in case there's any wondering, yes, we here at HoopsInstitute.ca heartily endorse the tank strategy this year. Actually, it's less a dedicated strategy than it is an inevitability. Be that as it may, the Raptors managed to lose at home against Indiana and showed both some promise and some disappointment tonight. It's performances like this that make it really hard to see where exactly this team is trying to go. I was left thinking about three things after the game: ball screen coverages, DeMar DeRozan's minutes and performance thus far and the point guard situation.

Ball Screen Coverage

Dwane Casey has completely altered the way the Raptors covered high ball screens from last year. He's forcing XScreener (the screener's defender, almost always a power forward or center) to "hedge hard" on ball screens, which means he must sprint to keep up with the screener and then step above the screen such that his feet are parallel with the sideline and the numbers on his jersey are at the level of the ballhandler's eyes. The aggressiveness of this seems to have brought out a new sense of urgency defensively in the Raptors; they are visibly playing much harder. However, there are several tactical issues the Raptors have to correct:

1. Firstly, XScreener cannot step out on the hedge until the ballhandler is coming out into the screen; if he steps too high or too soon, the hedge will be split and no matter what the defense does from then on out, they're going to give up a layup, free throws or the most uncontested jump shot in history. Bargnani in particular has been split at least twice this year on that, simply by stepping far too high out and far too early.
2. The Raptors are either using a stunt-and-recover or temporary rotation to handle the diving screener on the hard hedge; on occasion they will fully rotate. In both games so far, we've seen two players sprint out to the perimeter to challenge a shot, leaving uncontested offensive rebounds on the weak side. That's a problem, but the encouraging thing is that the recovery out of rotation for the Raptors seems to be quite good so far. Anybody who can read a book or attend a seminar can design a rotation for a team defensively, but only the very, very best coaches can teach recovery so that his or her players understand it intuitively. Teaching recoveries is what separates the great coaches from the Great Unwashed, and Dwane is certainly showing that he belongs in the former category.

Jose's Floor Generalship

For a guy lauded for his supposed game management skills, Jose Calderon did as pathetic a job as I've seen from Raptors' lead ballhandlers tonight. His utter inability to get into the paint or even get a basic ball screen executed properly, coupled with his career-long known inability to get his teammates to the free throw line highlighted just how desperately the Raptors need to end the experiment with him as a heavy-minute player. He simply isn't up to the job - at least, when he's not facing rookies like Kyrie Irving.

Seeing him completely panic after a couple of early turnovers - lobs thrown three feet over players' heads, passes thrown so far behind Amir Johnson even he couldn't catch them - and completely avoid venturing near the paint just made this entire team fall apart offensively. Coupled with the turnovers was his ever-declining shooting from the floor, which is in stiff competition with his hairline to see which one completely abandons him before he turns 32. Things did turn around for him in the fourth quarter, but that seemed to coincide with DeMar DeRozan unleashing himself offensively after a few catches in the post.

Now, I'll give credit to Indiana tonight. They really know how to shrink the court and keep the ball out of the paint. Not only Calderon but most Raptors tonight found it difficult to get the ball inside at all - but your point guard whose entire bread and butter is running ball screens cannot continuously refuse ball screens and completely fail to do anything with them when that happens - and that's what Jose did tonight. How the minutes got to a 30-18 split in favour of Calderon over Bayless tonight will remain a mystery for a good, long time.

DeMar, Where Hast Thou Been?

For the second game in a row, DeMar DeRozan played considerably fewer minutes than most people expected him to play. He's averaging only just over 27 mpg so far, and foul trouble really hasn't been an issue. True, he shot the ball poorly early on in the game today and the team doesn't exactly lean on his skills as a big-time stopper defensively but the lack of minutes is frankly shocking. If Coach Casey is trying to force DeRozan to earn his minutes by improving in several key areas regardless of how poor his competition is for those minutes (and it is very poor), then this would definitely be the year to do that. If not, I'm frankly at a loss for the decision-making so far.

DeMar has shown both promise and...something far less positive so far. He's shown mental toughness because in both games so far, as he's started off very poorly and then come back and played much better later in games: that's promising. The fact that he's looked so poor so far early in games is perplexing, though. 

On the plus side, DeMar is now doing more of what he's always needed to do: he's demanding the basketball, he's hunting his shots down aggressively and he's looked really confident doing so, despite some poor results early in games. He is looking like he's rapidly becoming a reliable, confident player who's going to produce wins. On the negative side, his rebounding still needs to improve considerably and he desperately, desperately needs to get to the line more. That is ultimately the difference between him being a mediocre player and a win-producer.

As a concluding note, we can take comfort in that the defense actually performed well tonight. The team didn't give up and played hard throughout. Their defensive rebounding and the horrible offensive play they got from Calderon, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis sunk them tonight. We'll take a loss where we can get them since the stakes are high this year, but at the very least the Raptors showed that they can keep a game close with Bargnani getting repeatedly abused defensively and their three normally most-efficient players having horrible nights at the same time. This is a loss that, if nothing else, shows some potential for a brighter future than we have now.

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Birds on the Wire

New year, new season, but now with added crazy. The Hoops Institute will be covering fantasy hoops all season. Waiver wire decisions, trade fallout, who's hot – you'll find it all here. The winter of Stern's discontent is going to be a fantasy hoops whirlwind and fortune favors the prepared (and the bold). The compressed schedule means we'll see a host of odd games from no-name guys and lot of prime talent playing shortened minutes and taking games off. In short, it's a great time to be a hoops junkie. Without further ado lets dive into the early results and see if we can't spot a hanging chad or two.

Trip-Dub Club, now recruiting members...

Is Spencer Hawes the second coming of Moses Malone? In a word, no. However, the boy does have talent, and perhaps we shouldn't rough him up too badly because it's taken him some time to get things rolling. Hawes isn't going to regularly push a trip-dub of course, but he is planning to walk on water and turn Coke to Pepsi during half time on All Star weekend. Personally, I'd settle for solid regular production and a consistent starters roll, which I think is very much in the cards this year. So if you drafted a guy like Kaman, who's riding the pine in Charlotte, or just need some depth at C, then grab Hawes while you can. If he gets 32 mpg he'll be good for around 13 and 8 with decent blocks. He's got the chops to produce solid dimes for a big and he can hit the three a little, so there's upside there too.

If Hawes isn't the second coming of Moses Malone, perhaps Boris Diaw is. Diaw was our other early almost trip-dub candidate, but in his case it was a little easier to see coming. Diaw has always been a great distributor for a forward, and increased minutes in a talent starved Bobcat's lineup should give him lots of opportunity. If Diaw isn't already owned in your league then go out and grab him – he's going to be worth owning in standard leagues for sure, and even on some shallow league teams where his production fits. Diaw is going to play, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him go for something like 12-6-6 with a three, a block, and a steal while shooting .500 from the floor.

It came at me outta nowhere officer...

Norris Cole? Yes. Yes you should add him, even in standard formats. It's got a little risk since he's bound to have rookie bumps in the road, but now is the time to add those fantasy season changing guys, and Cole might be one of those. Or he might crap out, but that kind of spice is why we play the game.

Spencer Hawes. Story on page one (see 3 inches above).

Andre Miller. The Miller-Lawson back court in Denver looks pretty awesome, and I think Miller will look good all year. Add him where you can and enjoy nice PG2/3 production from a waiver add. On a related note, trade for Lawson wherever possible. He's as good as he looks. On another related note, this is all sad news for Afflalo owners, who now have to deal with decreased production as well as remembering how to spell his name.

Ryan Anderson. Oh yeah. He's not a sexy pick up, but he could also lead the league in threes. So there's that. Besides, who isn't interested in 17 and 8 with (dare I say it) three threes a game plus a block and a steal? So he shoots .430 on the season, you didn't think it was all sunshine and lollipops did you?

They have a basketball team in Toronto?!

You bet they do, and there's a couple of gems there who may be available in your league. First though, let me congratulate everyone who used a late draft pick on Jose Calderon. Jose has looked killer running the pick and roll so far and I think he'll be solid all year (plus is looks like he can shoot again). Moving on to the gems though, let me advise you all to add Amir Johnson in pretty much any format, and Ed Davis is even moderately deep formats. Johnson was a surprise starter at center in the Raps' first game, and given the stellar results I think that trend continues. A line of 13 and 9 with a steal, nearly two blocks, and .550/.800 shooting is very possible. Davis is a little riskier because his minutes may fluctuate, but he could easily go for 10 and 6 with high FG% and 1.5+ blocks with the upside for a lot more.

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Raptors @ Cavs Dec 26 2011: A Worrying Start?

The game stats may be downloaded here in .pdf format.

The Toronto Raptors have put a lot of emphasis on the defensive end for this year, and rightfully so; they were dead last in the NBA in points allowed per possession the past two years. They talked a lot about culture change this offseason, and the impact that Dwane Casey would have on the team. In preseason, the Raptors looked pretty good on that side of the ball, so maybe there was reason for hope.

Then, a funny thing happened: the season started, and they were just as bad as they've ever been. Against a very bad Cleveland team last night, the Raptors allowed 113.1 points / 100 possessions - which is just about what they've averaged the past two years.

I know, I know; people will object to me discussing this by pointing out that it's early in the season, and we shouldn't draw too many conclusions from what happened last night. That's true, but at the same time this cannot be the kind of start that the Raptors had intended to have. In fact, last night's glorious victory over the splendid Cavaliers was eerily reminiscent of far too many of the oh so few Raptors' wins over the past four years; they simply won on the back of a couple of sky-high efficiency games on the offensive end from a handful of their players.

It's far too early to panic or to draw conclusions, but if this is a trend that continues on this year, we can conclude that all the coaching changes or positional name-changes in the world will not help this team. Ultimately, it's the talent on the team that's the problem - not only in the sense of a lack of talent, but the talent they do have is harming the team in an irreparable manner. We can't use one game's evidence to paint that picture, but let's be honest: the frame and the canvas were bought and set up a long time ago, and Raptors' fans would do well to monitor this.

I'm curious as to why DeRozan played only 25 minutes; he had a poor defensive night against an ancient Anthony Parker, so if his minutes reflected his defense then Coach Casey should pat himself on the back; DeMar can play better on that side of the floor, and simply has to. At the same time, the oft-repeated threat to reduce Bargnani's minutes in response to his rebounding was promptly forgotten. Perhaps Casey has actual hope for DeMar and will stop at nothing to get that out of him. DeRozan looked far better offensively than he did last year, so there must have been some disciplinary issues which Casey wanted to address.

To look on the positive side for this game, Jose Calderon had an uncharacteristically productive and super-efficient game without burning the team too badly on the defensive end. That's a welcome change; usually with Jose you get efficiency, but no productivity or defense; Raptors' fans should not get too acclimated to that. Amir Johnson looked like he was at his peak from last year; he was productive on the boards, including the defensive boards which sometimes are a bit of a cause for concern with him. Ed Davis was solid defensively and very productive offensively with ridiculous efficiency. The Raptors also managed to take the ball out of Andrea Bargnani's hands somewhat; that worked out well for them. Bayless played a rare solid game off of the bench, which is also somewhat encouraging. Unfortunately, much of the good has to be overshadowed by what is not so good.

As a concluding thought, and on a somewhat happy note, Amir Johnson in particular looked fantastic coming out of ball screen action, just like he always has. Raptors' fans should be salivating at the thought of pairing him and Ed Davis with Jonas Valanciunas next year. Leo Rautins in particular laid most of the credit at Jose Calderon's feet for the success of the ball screen action, and while Jose did have a strong game it should be remembered that very few big men have the quickness, the catching and leaping ability and especially touch around the basket which Amir Johnson has in his possession. Too much credit gets given to the passer, and not to the guy who makes the passer better with his ability to catch and finish, I think.

The Raptors' next game is tomorrow night. I plan on getting the game story out that evening or perhaps as late as the next morning.

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Random Thoughts I: Happy Holidays, and an Annoucement

I think it appropriate to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and a very happy New Year to all my readers today. I do appreciate the fact that I have been getting as many visitors to this site as I have, and I'd like to express a little gratitude for that!

I have a few things to get out there, none of which needs its own post. So I figured I'd just put a few things out there quickly.

• It's now public. I will be a contributor to TheScore.com's Raptorblog this coming year. I'm excited about the opportunity to post there; hopefully I can add some helpful material to the mix. Scott and Joseph seem like good heads and it should go really well.
• I wish I could get together with some of you this holiday season, if for no other reason that to get people eating some of the unfortunately large turkey I ended up getting from Mosborough Market. My "small" turkey order (12-14 lbs) unfortunately came in at 14.07 lbs; I was hoping for closer to 12 lbs. I plan on grilling it tonight when my mother comes over for dinner, but 14 pounds is a little on the big size for the grill. The bird will fit on the grill; that's not the problem. The problem is that at that size there's a danger that the exterior of the bird cooks too quickly and overcooks while it's undercooked further in. Basting is obviously a big part of the solution, but that's not so easy on a charcoal grill. I've marinated the bird with lemon zest and juice, garlic, black pepper, kosher salt, turbinado sugar, cayenne powder, cilantro and tarragon. We'll see how it goes.
• The engine on my car blew up last night. 285,000 kms and 14 years is a good service life, I can't complain. Even in the past four years, I've put a grand total of only $800 work into it - and it's been driven hard. I'm grateful for that.
• I do have the data for the first Raptors' preseason game against Boston. I am having some problems publicizing that because OpenOffice is really, really tempermental with how it handles tables. I mean, really tempermental. I'm going to have to get some work done in that regard this week so I don't have to spend copious amounts of time typing out row after row of statistics because we know typos do creep in on occasion.
• I was hoping to add a series of metrics analyzing the Raptors' performance by possession type this year, for primary breaks, secondary breaks and halfcourt possessions. I thought (and do think) that this would be helpful but it has proven to be a copious amount of work. It's not so much business when you have a PVR at your disposal, but for those games where I won't be immediately watching with a PVR I think it may be too difficult for one person to do while also keeping PDSS data.
• The Knicks are just completely determined to make that Amar'e-Carmelo tandem work. They just paid a lot of scratch for Tyson Chandler, who admittedly is worth that contract when he's healthy. They'd better hope he is, because they're all on in on that working. I remain skeptical because frankly you can't win much with one or two dedicated defenders on your team while the other three or four just occasionally try to give you something on that end.

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